{"id":8282,"date":"2018-04-18T16:33:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-18T16:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/statescoop.scpnewsgrp.com\/analytics-bring-the-most-dangerous-sex-offenders-into-the-spotlight\/"},"modified":"2021-09-03T14:00:08","modified_gmt":"2021-09-03T18:00:08","slug":"analytics-bring-the-most-dangerous-sex-offenders-into-the-spotlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statescoop.com\/analytics-bring-the-most-dangerous-sex-offenders-into-the-spotlight\/","title":{"rendered":"Analytics bring the most dangerous sex offenders into the spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mike Cormaci has a story he likes to tell about a meeting with a MapQuest executive about 20 years ago. It was before smartphones and\u00a0Google Maps \u2014 asking a search engine for “coffee\u00a0near me” didn’t work yet. MapQuest was the best thing going for location-based data, and\u00a0even\u00a0its functionality\u00a0was\u00a0limited.<\/p>\n

Cormaci shared an idea for a mapping tool\u00a0and, by his account, the other executive said, “Why would anyone want to look at a bunch of points on a map? People just want to go from A to B.”<\/p>\n

Cormaci knew\u00a0the executive was wrong. He already had a vision for a way to\u00a0aid\u00a0law enforcement and provide the public with information\u00a0that was high in demand.\u00a0He’s now\u00a0the co-founder of\u00a0OffenderWatch<\/a> \u2014 software that helps law enforcement track sex offenders.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It turns out that police love to look at a bunch of points on a map.\u00a0Today, OffenderWatch is used by about 4,000 law enforcement agencies at all levels of government around the country as a way to stay coordinated and track a segment of society that most people think should be relentlessly monitored, even in an era when personal digital privacy is an otherwise sensitive topic.<\/p>\n

The watching\u00a0is\u00a0becoming\u00a0more sophisticated. An analytics extension to OffenderWatch, called FOCUS, now helps law enforcement identify which offenders should be watched most closely. The tool was made widely available\u00a0last year and is being adopted by law enforcement as a way to more efficiently allocate resources.<\/p>\n

For a national law enforcement community that can be overwhelmed by the sex offenders it is\u00a0entrusted to watch, Cormaci says FOCUS\u00a0is already surprising police who thought they had a handle on who was the most dangerous.<\/p>\n

Check the fridge<\/strong><\/p>\n

The idea of a tool to watch sex offenders was something Cormaci stumbled upon.<\/p>\n

While working for a tech company, he\u00a0attended\u00a0a California State Sherriffs’ Association meeting, hoping for sales leads.\u00a0He pitched\u00a0a map that would\u00a0display where crimes were being committed, but\u00a0the sheriffs\u00a0weren’t interested. One sheriff said there was one thing he was very interested in \u2014\u00a0the locations of his locality’s sex offenders.<\/p>\n

So Cormaci built a database that soon allowed his first client, a law enforcement agency where he lived \u2014 in\u00a0St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana \u2014\u00a0to update a record online each time a sex offender changed residence. Cormaci wanted to make sure the agency was regularly\u00a0updating the system, so he set up an email alert for each time a change was made. He was pleased to see numerous updates\u00a0\u2014 in fact, he was receiving so many\u00a0that he decided to reel it in a little. He changed his email alert to only go off when a sex offender moved within a one mile radius of his office. That’s when he knew he was on to something.<\/p>\n

“I said, ‘Man, if this is valuable to me, this would be valuable to everybody,'” Cormaci said.<\/p>\n

OffenderWatch is now\u00a0used by the U.S. Marshals Service, the courts, federal probation and parole agents, prisons, the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and many local law enforcement agencies. The U.S. Postal Inspection Service\u00a0uses it to help law enforcement coordinate the location of sex offenders in child pornography distribution cases.<\/p>\n

The tool was developed as a way to help government overcome its perennial challenge of many agencies doing the same or similar thing but not communicating with each other.\u00a0It’s also a public service.\u00a0Cormaci says there’s one story that illustrates the\u00a0mission clearly.<\/p>\n

“A mother signs up for an email,” he said. “And one day she gets it. It says this new offender has moved in her neighborhood. She prints it out, puts it on her refrigerator. One day, the 6-year-old comes up and says, ‘That’s the candy man.’ The mom goes, ‘The what?’ She says, ‘That’s the candy man. He gives us candy when we get off the school bus.'”<\/p>\n

The mother calls the local detective listed in the email. Detectives watch the school bus from an unmarked vehicle the next day, and when the bus pulls away, the kids run to a silver pickup truck that had been following the bus.<\/p>\n

“They arrested him right on the spot,” Cormaci said. “So when you hear about this stuff not happening with strangers, it’s true. It’s because they go out and befriend all the children before.”<\/p>\n

‘He wasn’t home.’<\/strong><\/p>\n

More commonly, law enforcement finds red flags when it checks up on sex offenders by knocking on their front doors and through regular legally\u00a0mandated self-reports. The federal Megan’s Law<\/a>, enacted in 1994, set a national standard for community notification that states model their own registration and community\u00a0notification laws after.<\/p>\n

In 2006,\u00a0President George W. Bush signed the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act<\/a>, establishing a hierarchy for offenders, among other things. Tier 3 sex offenders, the most serious, must update law enforcement on their whereabouts every three months, Tier 2 has to check in every six months, and Tier 1 offenders are required to check in once a year.<\/p>\n

An easy guide for sex abuse crimes is to put it in terms of child pornography. Possession is Tier 1. Distribution is Tier 2. Making it is Tier 3. Many agencies use past history as one indicator of future behavior, but that’s rarely the full picture, and charges are not an accurate measure of the offender’s actions.\u00a0A\u00a0Tier 1 offender might just be getting started or maybe his charge was pleaded down from a more serious offense.\u00a0Police need more data to know who’s worth watching.<\/p>\n

Some warning signals are easy for law enforcement to interpret. If an offender misses a check-in, that’s typically a sign that someone should find him. But knocking on doors to track people down is inefficient and expensive. Between offenders avoiding\u00a0police and the low odds that a given person is home at a given hour of the day, it takes an average of more than four visits before an offender is reached this way. It’s more efficient for police to be proactive in maintaining contact with sex offenders and only\u00a0dedicate time to the highest priority cases.<\/p>\n

A study of high-risk sex offenders in California who had been released on parole between January 2006 and March 2009 found that offenders equipped with GPS monitoring devices\u00a0were far less likely<\/a>\u00a0to reoffend. A constant physical reminder that they were being watched was enough to keep most of them honest. But buying, maintaining and managing GPS trackers is expensive, and not practical on a wide scale. There are more than 850,000 sex offenders in the U.S., according to 2016 numbers from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children. There are more than a million full-time police officers plus many more part-time officers, but police have\u00a0other jobs\u00a0than knocking\u00a0on doors of empty apartments.<\/p>\n

Not everyone needs to be watched closely \u2014 getting caught once and checking in every so often is enough to keep many from reoffending. But in any jurisdiction’s sex offender population, there are those who need constant reminders.\u00a0The FOCUS tool was designed to be\u00a0an administrative workaround to what might otherwise be an insurmountable resource shortage.<\/p>\n

It uses predictive analytics to track more than 100 risk factors that paint an image of an offender’s lifestyle. Then it scores\u00a0offenders on how risky they are\u00a0\u2014\u00a01 to 10. In addition to using general statistics like census information, the tool uses self-reported metrics like address, relationship status, employment, and vehicle ownership. Police\u00a0think they already know their offenders and who they should be watching, but that’s proving untrue in pilot testing and early use, Cormaci said.<\/p>\n

One tricky thing, he said, is that the factors that point to a risky offender in one area could be totally different than what makes someone risky somewhere else, so OffenderWatch\u00a0has created customized algorithms for each county. But one factor that remains consistently important, in all cases,\u00a0Cormaci said, is change. The change could be good or bad, but if an offender’s lifestyle changes by more than 50 percent according to the software’s\u00a0measurements, that means the person\u00a0either needs to be watched very closely, or if the changes are positive, he can be removed from close monitoring\u00a0for the time being.<\/p>\n

“Nationally what you typically get is that all of them are treated exactly the same way,” Cormaci said. “Well, you can’t do that when you have 3,000 people [in a single county]. It’s impossible. There’s only 30 days in a month. How many of them can you check up on?”<\/p>\n

Finding the bad guys<\/strong><\/p>\n

Instances of an 18- or 19-year-old man who gets in trouble with the law for a relationship with a 16- or 17-year-old girl \u2014 known in the law enforcement community as “Romeo and Juliet” cases \u2014 may be given similar priority as the neighborhood candy man if an agency isn’t organized. Identifying high-risk targets and checking in with them frequently \u2014 a face-to-face version of the nudge that the GPS tracker provided \u2014 has produced “astounding” results in early pilots, Cormaci said.<\/p>\n

The Baltimore Police Department helped the company develop FOCUS in a pilot between January 2016 and June 2017. Their old system, an “archaic” Lotus Notes database, was in use until 2014, said Detective Sergeant Adam Kirhagis, and it didn’t work well.<\/p>\n

“It was garbage in, garbage out\u00a0\u2014 the old clich\u00e9,” Kirhagis said. “We had no way to manipulate our data to figure out who are the bad guys. Who are the worst of the worst?”<\/p>\n

Kirhagis runs the Sex Offender Registry Unit for the Baltimore Police Department, a criminal investigations team of six. Before that, he ran the child sex abuse unit. Most members of his unit have experience in the child sex abuse unit, he said. He’s been in this line of work for 11 years.<\/p>\n

Asked how he does it, he said: “You’d be surprised the discipline you immediately get running these investigations. If your emotions override your intellect, then you’re not going to get decent convictions, the child’s not going to get decent therapy, so you keep a real level head for the greater good.”<\/p>\n

FOCUS isn’t a crystal ball, he said, but it is helping them spot “a lot of offenders”\u00a0they didn’t think were\u00a0a priority before, amid a list of hundreds of people to track.<\/p>\n

“We’re jockeying between 1,300, 1,400 offenders at any time that are on the street,” Kirhagis said.<\/p>\n

One\u00a0offender, whom police asked not be named because his case may be unresolved,\u00a0is a 74-year-old man with Parkinson’s disease who\u00a0spends his days sitting in a wheelchair in his apartment in Baltimore. He has a caretaker. His original\u00a0Tier 3 charge from 1999 was\u00a0causing abuse to a child.\u00a0But\u00a0because\u00a0of\u00a0his physical state,\u00a0he was not considered by Kirhagis’ unit to be a high priority.<\/p>\n

“Well, this\u00a080-year old man invited some neighborhood girls in to help clean the house, gave them some money, and then he gave them some more money to\u2026” Kirhagis trailed off. “He reoffended. You’d never think an 80-year old man would be capable of that, but when we ran him through FOCUS, he was a 9 out of 10 on a risk score.”<\/p>\n

If Baltimore\u00a0misread the old man, then there could be others.\u00a0Cormaci says his company is trying to help police spot these people, because if there’s one thing he’s learned in 20 years of doing this, it’s that the next perpetrator\u00a0could be anyone.<\/p>\n

“They span the socioeconomic scale,” Cormaci said. “It happens in the best neighborhoods. It happens in the worst neighborhoods.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are more sex offenders than police have time to watch, but a new tool is pointing out threats previously 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